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NFL Betting Strategy - 2025 (Thru Monday, 12/8)

By Al DeMarco - GM, Featured Handicapper

Not a free pick, but something more valuable....a discussion on betting strategy.

That little quirky trend I discovered some 14 years ago regarding SU Winners covering in the first 10-13 weeks of the season..,.well, here's your results from the 2025 season.

Please note I do NOT count Week 18 when teams tank or rest starters. By and large, the majority of Week 18 games have become meaningless exhibitions and they skew the results so dramatically.

SU Winners vs the Spread:
  • Week 1: 12-4 ATS (same record as 2024)

  • Week 2: 13-3 ATS (13-2-1 in week 2 in 2024)

  • Week 3: 13-3 ATS (16-0 in week 3 in 2024)

  • Week 4: 14-1-1 ATS (12-3-1 in week 4 in 2024)

  • Week 5: 14-0 (13-1 in week 5 in 2024)

  • Week 6: 11-4 (13-1 in week 6 in 2024)

  • Week 7: 13-2 (13-2 in week 7 in 2024)

  • Week 8: 13-0 (13-3 in week 8 in 2024)

  • Week 9: 11-3 (11-4 in week 9 in 2024)

  • Week 10: 11-3 (9-5 in week 10 in 2024)

  • Week 11: 11-3-1 (13-1 in week 11 in 2024)

  • Week 12: 8-5-1 (11-1-1 in week 12 in 2024)

  • Week 13: 13-3  (11-5 in week 13 in 2024)

  • Week 14: 11-2-1  (8-5 in week 14 in 2024)

  • 2025 Total: 166-38-4 ATS (81.4%)

  • 2024 Total: 211-41-4 ATS (83.7%)

How have dogs done?
  • Week 1: 7-9 ATS (3 outright)

  • Week 2: 7-9 ATS (5 outright)

  • Week 3: 7-9 ATS (4 outright)

  • Week 4: 7-9 ATS (5 outright)

  • Week 5: 9-5 ATS (9 outright)

  • Week 6: 8-7 ATS (4 outright)

  • Week 7: 5-10 ATS (3 outright)

  • Week 8: 2-11 ATS (2 outright)

  • Week 9: 9-5 ATS (6 outright)

  • Week 10: 9-5 ATS (6 outright)

  • Week 11: 7-7-1 ATS (4 outright)

  • Week 12: 9-4-1 ATS (4 outright)

  • Week 13: 10-6 ATS (7 outright)

  • Week 14: 8-5-1 (6 outright)

  • 2025 Total: 104-103-3 ATS (66 outright)

  • 2024 Total: 111-140-3 ATS (69 outright)

  • I've repeatedly said there is value in placing a SMALLER wager on a pup - if that's your top play - on the Money Line if you're getting a significant take-back price (at least +140 or more) because 1) it's a smart investment and 2) over the course the season you'll find the dogs win outright around 30-35% of the time.

Now, let's break it all down a little more:

SU Winners vs the Spread - Prime Time Games Only
(their results are included above)
  • Thursday: 13-3 ATS (Favorites 6-10 ATS)

  • Friday: 2-0 ATS (Favorites 0-2 ATS)

  • Sunday Night: 12-1-1 ATS  (Favorites 8-6 ATS)

  • Monday Night: 18-0 ATS (Favorites 10-8 ATS)

  • Monday Night (8 outright MNF dogs)

  • 2025 Total: 45-4-1 ATS (Favorites 24-26 ATS)


    2024 SU Winners vs the Spread - Prime Time Games Only

  • 2024 Total: 54-10-2 ATS (Favorites 43-21-2 ATS)

  • Monday Night 19-1-1 ATS (Favorites: 14-6-1 ATS)
    (5 outright MNF dogs)

  • Sunday Night: 14-2-1 ATS (Favorites: 11-5-1 ATS)

  • Thursday Night: 14-5 ATS (Favorites: 11-8 ATS)

2025 YTD Results